WSJ Apr. 15 Nasdaq

Nasdaq Logs Longest Winning Streak Since 2021 as Investors Look Beyond War

S&P 500 stands 0.2% from a record hit in January

纳指创2021年以来最长连涨纪录，投资者将目光投向战争之后

Never mind that one of the world's most-important energy chokepoints reminds closed. Markets are roaring back anyway.

Oil prices have retreated. Wall Street banks just posted blockbuster earnings. And CEOs are touting the strengthen of the U.S. economy. That combination has stock back on the brink of records and some investors thinking a strong earnings season could power them even higher.

尽管全球最重要的能源咽喉要道之一仍处于关闭状态，但市场似乎并不在意，正在强势反弹

油价已经回落，华尔街大行刚刚公布了重磅财报，企业CEO们则在大力宣扬美国经济的强势势头。这些因素叠加起来，推动股市重回记录高点边缘，一些投资者认为，强劲的财报季或将助推股市进一步走高。

The good vibes mark a stark reversal from the malaise that dragged shares lower after fighting began at the end of February. The prospect of a peace deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz has now powered the Nasdaq composite to its longest streak of daily gains since November 2021—a 10-session ascent that has lifted the tech-heavy index index 14%. The S&P 500 has erased its wartime losses and climbed 1.2% Tuesday to within 0.2% of its Jan. 27 record.

这种乐观情绪与2月底战事爆发后拖累股价走低的低迷人气形成了鲜明对比。如今，重启霍尔木兹海峡的和平协议前景升温，已推动纳斯达克综合指数创下2021年11月以来的最长单日连涨记录——连续10个交易日上扬，累计涨幅14%。标普500指数已经收复了战时失地，周二上涨1.2%，距离1月27日的记录高点仅差0.2%。

War worries haven't gone away. The Dow Jones Industrial Average's energy-hungry components have the blue-chip index lagging behind other major benchmarks, on Tuesday notching a 0.7% gain. But with the nation's largest banks reporting that consumers continue to borrow and spend, many think that the prospect for strong corporate earnings can outweigh the risks of a war-fueled slowdown.

战争引发的担忧并未完全消散。道琼斯指数中对能源需求较大的成分股拖累了该蓝筹股指数的表现，使其落后于其他主要股指，周二仅上涨0.7%。但随着美国几家大银行报告称消费者仍在继续借贷和消费，许多人认为，强劲的企业盈利前景可以盖过战争引发经济放缓的风险。

"It's unbelievable. The market only seems to care that the Strait will be open in the future," said Brad Conger, chief investment officer at Hirtle Callaghan. "Because in the short run, the longer this extends, the greater the impact."

“这简直难以置信。市场似乎只关心海峡未来会重开，”Hirtle Callaghan的首席投资官布拉德·康格说。“因为短期来看，这种情况持续得越久，影响就越大。”

Tech has been a major beneficiary of this shift. A computing-power arms races among the biggest artificial-intelligence companies is driving huge demand for hardware like chips, servers and memory, and minting big winners in the stock market.

科技行业是这一转变得主要受益者。几家最大的人工智能公司之间展开了一场算力军备竞赛，推动了对芯片、服务器和内存等硬件的巨大需求，也在股票市场上催生出大赢家。

Shares of flash-memory maker Sandisk have quadrupled this year. Intel, left for dead by investors as recently as last year, has jumped more than 50% in the past nine sessions after announcing a series of new chip-making partnerships. Even software, a sector many fear is ripe for disruption by new AI tools, has rebounded in recent sessions.

闪存制造商闪迪的股价今年以来已上涨了三倍。英特尔在去年还被投资者视为大势已去，但在宣布一系列新的芯片制造合作伙伴关系后，其股价在过去的九个交易日里飙升了50%以上。就连被许多人担心很容易受到新AI工具颠覆的软件行业，近几个交易日也出现了反弹。

"Tech has been the real star in this recovery," said Louis Navellier, founder of Navellier & Associates. "The AI narrative is alive and well."

“科技股是这次反弹中真正的明星，”Navellier & Associates创始人路易斯·纳维利尔说，“人工智能的故事依然充满活力。”

And as first-quarter earnings season kicked off with Wall Street results this week, there was little indication the war had hurt results at some of the nation's biggest financial firms.

本周，随着华尔街公布业绩，第一财报季拉开帷幕，几乎没有迹象表明战争损害了美国一些最大金融公司的业绩。

The market volatility has been a boon for trading desks. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase both posted record quarters for trading revenue. Combined with Citigroup and Wells Fargo, the group's total trading revenues were up 16% from a year earlier. JPMorgan shares fell 0.8%. Goldman added 2.1%.

市场波动对交易部门而言是一大利好。高盛和摩根大通的交易收入均创下季度新高。若加上花旗集团和富国银行，这四家银行的总交易收入较上年同期增长了16%。摩根大通股价下跌0.8%，高盛上涨2.1%。

"Despite all of the various types of volatility we've seen over the last quarter, in the last number of years, where markets go up and markets go down and clients lever up and clients lever down, there still is a tremendous amount of demand from clients for us to step in and support them with financing," said Denis Coleman, Goldman's finance chief.

高盛的财务总监丹尼斯·科尔曼说：“尽管我们在上个季度以及过去几年里看到了各种波动，市场有起有落，客户杠杆有增有减，但客户仍然有巨大的需求，需要我们介入并为他们提供融资支持。

At the same time, the quarter wasn't so volatile that CEOs were scared away from deals, leading to a surge in mergers and acquisitions. Fees on advisory work were up more than 80% from last year for both Goldman and JPMorgan, the biggest deal banks.

与此同时，该财季的波动性也并未大到让CEO们对交易望而却步，并购活动反而大幅增加。最为最大的投行，高盛和摩根大通的咨询业务费用均比去年增长了80%以上。

BlackRock, the world's largest investment firm, just posted "one of the strongest starts to a year" in the firm's history, Chief Executive Larry Fink told investor Tuesday. The asset manager brought in $130 billion in new money from clients and shrugged off concerns about trouble in the private-credit markets, reporting net inflows in that business, too.

全球最大的投资公司贝莱德首席执行官劳伦斯·芬克周二告诉投资者，公司刚刚公布了历史上“表现最强劲的开年首季财报之一”。这家资产管理公司从客户那里吸引了1300亿美元的新资金，并消除了对私募信贷市场问题的担忧，报告称该业务也实现了净流入。

Investors and bank executive acknowledged that markets still face a litany of war-related risks.

投资者和银行高管承认，市场仍然面临一系列与战争相关的风险。

Benchmark U.S. crude futures fell 7.9% Tuesday to close at %91.28 a barrel—down roughly 20% from last week's high, but still elevated by historic standards. A rekindled conflict and sustained increase in oil price could slow growth and lift inflation, pressuring consumers and businesses.

周二，美国基准原油期货下跌7.9%，收于每桶91.28美元——虽然较上周高点下跌了约20%，但按历史标准衡量仍处于高位。冲突再起以及油价持续上涨可能会减缓经济增长并推高通胀，从而给消费者和企业带来压力。

Even strong earnings from the tech giants that carried market higher in recent years could still disappoint investors and this year's worries about AI disruptions could return once the fighting ends. Analysts are projecting a sixth-straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth, according to FactSet.

即便在过去几年带动市场走高的科技巨头的强劲盈利，仍可能令投资者失望；而今年关于人工智能颠覆的担忧，一旦战斗结束，也可能卷土重来。接受FactSet调查的分析师预计，这将是连续第六个季度实现两位数的盈利增长。

Still, many are hopeful that U.S. growth will prove strong enough to shake off the burden of higher energy prices.

尽管如此，许多人仍寄希望于美国经济增长足够强劲，能够摆脱高能源价格带来的负担。

Hilton Chief Executive Christoper Nassetta said the hotel giant is seeing higher demand for its middle-market brands, following a period where higher-end hotels had performed well and everything else lagged behind.

希尔顿首席执行官克里斯托弗·纳塞塔表示，这家酒店业巨头的中端市场品牌需求正在走高，而在此之前的一段时期，高端酒店表现良好，其他市场则表现滞后。

"It become sort of obvious to me that if you lifted up above the noise in Washington and the geopolitical things that were going on, that there were some really, really good macro trends that were building blocks to serious improvement in the economy," Nassetta told an audience at the Semafor World Economy conference.

纳塞塔在Semafor世界经济论坛上对听众说：“对我来说，情况变得很明显，如果你能拨开华盛顿的喧嚣和地缘政治事件的迷雾，就会发现一些非常、非常好的宏观趋势，它们是经济实现重大改善的基石。”

At the same conference, Kurt Björklund, executive chairman of private-equity firm Permira, stressed the long-term resilience of the U.S.

在同一次会议上，私募股权投资公司Permira的执行董事Kurt Björklund强调了美国的长期韧性。

"Any bet against the U.S. economy long term, in my experience, is always wrong," he said.

他说：“以我的经验来看，任何看衰美国经济的长期押注最终都是错的。”